| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Approve | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| Disapprove | 52.4% | 54.4% |
| Unsure | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Net Approve | -7.6 | -12.4 |
Susan Collins
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Favorable | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| Unfavorable | 58.0% | 57.3% |
| Unsure | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| Never Heard | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net Fav | -32.8 | -28.8 |
Janet Mills
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Favorable | 33.2% | 33.8% |
| Unfavorable | 55.6% | 55.0% |
| Unsure | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Never Heard | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Net Fav | -22.4 | -21.2 |
Graham Platner
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Favorable | 37.2% | 30.4% |
| Unfavorable | 13.8% | 30.8% |
| Unsure | 28.5% | 27.6% |
| Never Heard | 20.5% | 11.2% |
| Net Fav | +23.4 | -0.4 |
Generic Senate Ballot
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| The Democrat | 47.7% | 48.5% |
| The Republican | 41.8% | 42.2% |
| Undecided | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| Margin | D +5.9 | D +6.3 |
Collins vs. Mills
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins, R | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| Janet Mills, D | 30.0% | 32.2% |
| Someone else | 31.6% | 28.4% |
| Undecided | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Margin | R +1.7 | R +1.9 |
Collins vs. Platner
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner, D | 45.0% | 41.3% |
| Susan Collins, R | 32.1% | 34.7% |
| Someone else | 13.3% | 16.1% |
| Undecided | 9.7% | 8.0% |
| Margin | D +12.9 | D +6.6 |
Democratic Primary Ballot (Dem Primary Voters Only)
| Response | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|
| Graham Platner | 36.9% |
| Janet Mills | 31.5% |
| Jordan Wood | 2.0% |
| David Costello | 1.4% |
| Someone else | 5.6% |
| Undecided | 22.5% |
Democratic primary ballot not asked in October wave.
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Have you seen, read, or heard anything about Susan Collins recently? | ||
| Yes | 82.7% | 80.5% |
| No | 14.9% | 16.5% |
| Unsure | 2.4% | 3.1% |
| SRH Impact | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| More Favorable | 10.4% | 12.4% |
| Less Favorable | 44.9% | 32.9% |
| No Impact | 44.0% | 47.3% |
| Have not heard | 0.7% | 7.5% |
| Net SRH Impact | -34.5 | -20.5 |
| SRH Open-Ended Themes | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Alignment | 37.1% | 32.9% |
| Voting Record | 28.8% | 26.3% |
| Character/Integrity | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| Support Maine | 20.2% | 24.4% |
Multiple themes per response possible; percentages may exceed 100%.
| Statement | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree | Disagree | Agree | Disagree | |
| "Collins has protected pensions..." | 32.5% | 24.0% | 40.2% | 18.7% |
| "Collins has secured healthcare funds..." | 28.6% | 26.6% | 38.7% | 20.3% |
| "Mills thanked Collins..." | 18.0% | 33.2% | 40.2% | 22.4% |
| Susan Collins | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Very Conservative | 20.1% | 20.3% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 32.4% | 34.1% |
| Moderate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 9.7% | 7.9% |
| Very Liberal | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Unsure | 11.5% | 9.4% |
| Janet Mills | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Very Conservative | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 2.7% | 4.4% |
| Moderate | 17.1% | 20.3% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 24.8% | 22.9% |
| Very Liberal | 48.8% | 46.7% |
| Unsure | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| Graham Platner | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Very Conservative | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Moderate | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| Very Liberal | 24.8% | 34.1% |
| Unsure | 45.5% | 37.9% |
| Response | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| I support him and his policies | 36.7% | 37.0% |
| I dislike him personally but support most of his policies | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| I dislike him and don't support most of his policies | 52.2% | 53.9% |
| Unsure | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Response | Oct 2025 |
|---|---|
| Keeping the government open is too important; reopen | 42.8% |
| Government should stay shut down until certain goals are achieved | 40.9% |
| Unsure | 16.3% |
| Country Direction | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Right Direction | 32% | 37% | 36% |
| Wrong Track | 63% | 58% | 60% |
| Don't Know | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Maine Direction | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Right Direction | 35% | 32% | 28% |
| Wrong Track | 57% | 60% | 62% |
| Don't Know | 8% | 8% | 10% |
Donald Trump Job Approval
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Approve | 41% | 43% | 44% |
| Total Disapprove | 58% | 56% | 54% |
| Strongly Approve | 30% | 31% | 30% |
| Somewhat Approve | 11% | 12% | 14% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 55% | 51% | 51% |
| Net Approve | -17 | -13 | -10 |
Janet Mills Job Approval (Governor)
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Approve | 49% | 46% | 46% |
| Total Disapprove | 48% | 52% | 52% |
| Strongly Approve | 25% | 17% | 20% |
| Somewhat Approve | 25% | 29% | 25% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 9% | 8% | 9% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 39% | 44% | 43% |
| Net Approve | +1 | -6 | -6 |
Susan Collins Job Approval (U.S. Senator)
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Approve | 42% | 41% | 43% |
| Total Disapprove | 54% | 55% | 53% |
| Strongly Approve | 16% | 11% | 12% |
| Somewhat Approve | 26% | 30% | 31% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 15% | 17% | 19% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 39% | 38% | 34% |
| Net Approve | -12 | -14 | -10 |
Donald Trump
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 40% | 43% | 44% |
| Total Unfavorable | 58% | 56% | 56% |
| Very Favorable | 29% | 30% | 29% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 12% | 14% | 14% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 2% | 4% | 3% |
| Very Unfavorable | 56% | 52% | 52% |
Susan Collins
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 45% | 43% | 41% |
| Total Unfavorable | 51% | 53% | 55% |
| Very Favorable | 17% | 13% | 14% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 27% | 30% | 27% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 15% | 19% | 22% |
| Very Unfavorable | 36% | 34% | 33% |
Janet Mills
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 49% | 45% | 46% |
| Total Unfavorable | 47% | 54% | 52% |
| Very Favorable | 22% | 14% | 18% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 27% | 31% | 28% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Very Unfavorable | 38% | 43% | 41% |
Graham Platner
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 33% | 37% | 37% |
| Total Unfavorable | 26% | 23% | 26% |
| Very Favorable | 17% | 15% | 17% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 16% | 22% | 21% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Very Unfavorable | 17% | 15% | 18% |
| No Opinion | 20% | 20% | 16% |
| Never Heard | 22% | 19% | 21% |
Generic Senate Ballot
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican candidate | 37% | 41% | 44% |
| The Democratic candidate | 47% | 47% | 45% |
| Don't Know / Undecided | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Margin | D +10 | D +6 | D +1 |
Collins vs. Mills (with lean)
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Collins | 45% | 48% | 50% |
| Total Mills | 49% | 47% | 45% |
| Definitely Collins | 36% | 41% | 39% |
| Probably Collins | 7% | 5% | 8% |
| Lean Collins | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Definitely Mills | 37% | 35% | 36% |
| Probably Mills | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Lean Mills | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Hard Undecided | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Margin | D +4 | R +1 | R +5 |
Collins vs. Platner (with lean)
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Collins | 44% | 49% | 49% |
| Total Platner | 45% | 45% | 44% |
| Definitely Collins | 32% | 38% | 35% |
| Probably Collins | 8% | 7% | 12% |
| Lean Collins | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Definitely Platner | 34% | 34% | 36% |
| Probably Platner | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| Lean Platner | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Hard Undecided | 9% | 6% | 7% |
| Margin | D +1 | R +4 | R +5 |
Democratic Primary Ballot (Dem/Dem-leaning voters)
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner | 50% | 55% | 47% |
| Janet Mills | 33% | 31% | 42% |
| David Costello | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Hard Undecided | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Issue | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Protecting democracy | 23% | 21% | 25% |
| Inflation and cost of living | 13% | 11% | 9% |
| Immigration and border security | 9% | 9% | 16% |
| Jobs and the economy | 9% | 8% | 3% |
| Healthcare | 8% | 14% | 8% |
| Social Security and Medicare | 8% | 6% | 5% |
| Government spending and the debt | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| All (vol.) | 6% | 8% | 18% |
| Taxes | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| National Security | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| Education | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Abortion | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Crime and drugs | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Collins: Independent Voice vs. Trump Supporter
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly an independent voice for Maine | 39% | 42% | 41% |
| Mostly a supporter of Donald Trump | 47% | 46% | 40% |
| Both (vol.) | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Neither (vol.) | 4% | 3% | 8% |
| Don't Know | 7% | 7% | 5% |
Collins Ideology
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Conservative | 56% | 55% | 54% |
| Total Liberal | 7% | 9% | 10% |
| Very Conservative | 23% | 21% | 20% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 33% | 35% | 34% |
| Moderate | 30% | 29% | 28% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Very Liberal | 2% | 3% | 7% |
Collins Effectiveness
| Response | Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Effective | 62% | 58% | 63% |
| Total Ineffective | 35% | 39% | 34% |
| Very Effective | 21% | 19% | 23% |
| Somewhat Effective | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Not Very Effective | 18% | 19% | 17% |
| Not At All Effective | 17% | 20% | 17% |
| Net Effective | +27 | +19 | +29 |
Collins Seen/Read/Heard (February Only)
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Yes, have seen/read/heard | 77% |
| No, have not | 22% |
| SRH Impact (Feb 2026) | % |
|---|---|
| Total More Likely FOR Collins | 33% |
| Total More Likely AGAINST Collins | 46% |
| Much More Likely FOR | 17% |
| Somewhat More Likely FOR | 16% |
| Somewhat More Likely AGAINST | 14% |
| Much More Likely AGAINST | 33% |
| No Difference / Haven't Seen | 18% |
| Net SRH Impact | -13 |
| No Kings Movement | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Yes, part of No Kings protest movement | 36% |
| No, not part of movement | 57% |
| Don't Know | 7% |
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| How likely are you to vote in the November elections? | |
| Definitely voting | 93.9% |
| Probably voting | 4.8% |
| 50/50 chance | 0.9% |
| DK/Refused | 0.4% |
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| How likely are you to vote in Maine's Democratic primary? (n=351) | |
| Definitely voting | 84.4% |
| Probably voting | 10.0% |
| 50/50 chance | 5.6% |
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| The Democrat candidate | 48.7% |
| The Republican candidate | 38.9% |
| DK/Refused | 12.3% |
| Margin | D +9.8 |
Donald Trump
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 39.7% |
| Total Unfavorable | 57.3% |
| Very Favorable | 29.8% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 10.0% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 2.9% |
| Very Unfavorable | 54.4% |
| No Opinion | 2.3% |
| Never Heard Of | 0.6% |
| Net Fav | -17.6 |
Susan Collins
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 37.1% |
| Total Unfavorable | 57.8% |
| Very Favorable | 10.6% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 26.5% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 20.6% |
| Very Unfavorable | 37.3% |
| No Opinion | 4.7% |
| Never Heard Of | 0.3% |
| Net Fav | -20.7 |
Janet Mills
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 41.2% |
| Total Unfavorable | 52.3% |
| Very Favorable | 12.0% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 29.2% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 10.4% |
| Very Unfavorable | 41.9% |
| No Opinion | 5.3% |
| Never Heard Of | 1.2% |
| Net Fav | -11.1 |
Graham Platner
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Favorable | 44.8% |
| Total Unfavorable | 26.3% |
| Very Favorable | 21.4% |
| Somewhat Favorable | 23.5% |
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 7.4% |
| Very Unfavorable | 18.9% |
| No Opinion | 14.4% |
| Never Heard Of | 14.5% |
| Net Fav | +18.5 |
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Approve | 39.3% |
| Total Disapprove | 56.5% |
| Strongly Approve | 10.0% |
| Somewhat Approve | 29.3% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 18.4% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 38.1% |
| DK/Refused | 4.2% |
| Net Approve | -17.2 |
Collins vs. Mills
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Democrat Janet Mills | 46.3% |
| Republican Susan Collins | 44.0% |
| Undecided | 9.8% |
| Margin | D +2.3 |
Collins vs. Platner
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Democrat Graham Platner | 48.8% |
| Republican Susan Collins | 42.0% |
| Undecided | 9.2% |
| Margin | D +6.8 |
Democratic Primary Ballot (n=351)
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Graham Platner | 53.2% |
| Janet Mills | 19.5% |
| David Costello | 1.8% |
| Andrea LaFlamme | 0.3% |
| Undecided | 25.2% |
Collins Effectiveness
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Effective | 51.2% |
| Total Ineffective | 45.0% |
| Very Effective | 19.2% |
| Somewhat Effective | 32.1% |
| Somewhat Ineffective | 17.2% |
| Very Ineffective | 27.8% |
| DK/Refused | 3.7% |
| Net Effective | +6.2 |
Collins: Independent Voice vs. Trump Supporter
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Mostly a supporter of Donald Trump | 48.9% |
| Mostly an independent voice for Maine | 40.6% |
| DK/Refused | 10.5% |
Collins Ideology
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Conservative | 63.0% |
| Total Liberal | 6.9% |
| Very Conservative | 26.4% |
| Somewhat Conservative | 36.6% |
| Moderate | 24.7% |
| Somewhat Liberal | 4.8% |
| Very Liberal | 2.1% |
| DK/Refused | 5.5% |
| Statement | Agree | Disagree | DK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collins is working to protect Social Security | 44.9% | 36.8% | 18.3% |
| Collins is working to protect healthcare | 43.8% | 46.1% | 10.1% |
| Collins is working to protect Maine's rivers and water quality | 51.2% | 31.8% | 17.0% |
| Collins is working to support firefighters and first responders | 62.0% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| Collins supports ICE and crackdown on undocumented immigrants | 77.9% | 14.7% | 7.3% |
| Collins votes to protect big pharma | 54.5% | 20.8% | 24.8% |
| Response | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 84.5% |
| No/All Other | 15.5% |
| SRH Impact (n=507) | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total More Likely (for Collins) | 33.1% |
| Total Less Likely (for Collins) | 53.7% |
| Much More Likely | 14.3% |
| Somewhat More Likely | 18.8% |
| Somewhat Less Likely | 11.0% |
| Much Less Likely | 42.7% |
| DK/Refused | 13.3% |
| Net SRH Impact | -20.6 |
| SRH Open-Ended Themes (n=507) | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Campaign ads | 21.8% |
| Negative appraisal of Collins | 9.2% |
| Trump alignment | 7.6% |
| Maine funding projects | 6.3% |
| SAVE Act support | 6.2% |
| Voting record / party line | 5.6% |
| ICE support | 5.4% |
| Positive appraisal of Collins | 4.9% |
| State of the Union / Oval Office appearance | 3.2% |
| Communications (newsletters, social media) | 2.6% |
| Healthcare & abortion stance | 2.3% |
| Perceived inconsistency / RINO label | 1.6% |
| Other | 8.6% |
| Don't Know/Refused | 14.7% |
| Janet Mills | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Conservative | 5.2% |
| Total Liberal | 67.6% |
| Moderate | 21.6% |
| DK/Refused | 5.8% |
| Graham Platner | Feb 2026 |
|---|---|
| Total Conservative | 2.0% |
| Total Liberal | 59.8% |
| Moderate | 12.6% |
| DK/Refused | 25.6% |
| 2024 Presidential Vote | % |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 50.0% |
| Donald Trump | 40.7% |
| Third party / Didn't vote | 6.8% |
| DK/Refused | 2.5% |
| Party Registration | % |
|---|---|
| Republican | 37.3% |
| Democrat | 34.4% |
| Independent/Unaffiliated/Other | 24.3% |
| DK/Refused | 4.1% |
| Congressional District | % |
|---|---|
| CD-1 | 53.7% |
| CD-2 | 46.3% |
Generic Senate Ballot
| Pollster | Date | Democrat | Republican | Und. | D Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Oct 17, 2025 | 47.7% | 41.8% | 10.5% | +5.9 |
| co/efficient | Nov 10, 2025 | 48.5% | 42.2% | 9.4% | +6.3 |
| Axis | Nov 19, 2025 | 47% | 37% | 15% | +10 |
| Axis | Jan 7, 2026 | 47% | 41% | 11% | +6 |
| Axis | Feb 5, 2026 | 45% | 44% | 10% | +1 |
| 1892 | Feb 27, 2026 | 48.7% | 38.9% | 12.3% | +9.8 |
Collins vs. Mills
| Pollster | Date | Collins | Mills | Other/Und. | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient* | Oct 17, 2025 | 31.7% | 30.0% | 38.3% | Collins +1.7 |
| co/efficient* | Nov 10, 2025 | 34.1% | 32.2% | 33.7% | Collins +1.9 |
| Axis | Nov 19, 2025 | 45% | 49% | 6% | Mills +4 |
| Axis | Jan 7, 2026 | 48% | 47% | 5% | Collins +1 |
| Axis | Feb 5, 2026 | 50% | 45% | 5% | Collins +5 |
| 1892 | Feb 27, 2026 | 44.0% | 46.3% | 9.8% | Mills +2.3 |
*co/efficient ballot tests included a "Someone else" option, accounting for the higher Other/Undecided share.
Collins vs. Platner
| Pollster | Date | Collins | Platner | Other/Und. | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient* | Oct 17, 2025 | 32.1% | 45.0% | 23.0% | Platner +12.9 |
| co/efficient* | Nov 10, 2025 | 34.7% | 41.3% | 24.1% | Platner +6.6 |
| Axis | Nov 19, 2025 | 44% | 45% | 10% | Platner +1 |
| Axis | Jan 7, 2026 | 49% | 45% | 6% | Collins +4 |
| Axis | Feb 5, 2026 | 49% | 44% | 7% | Collins +5 |
| 1892 | Feb 27, 2026 | 42.0% | 48.8% | 9.2% | Platner +6.8 |
*co/efficient ballot tests included a "Someone else" option.
| Parameter | co/efficient W1 | co/efficient W2 | Axis W1 | Axis W2 | Axis W3 | 1892 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field Date | Oct 15-17, 2025 | Nov 6-10, 2025 | Nov 19, 2025 | Jan 7, 2026 | Feb 3-5, 2026 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Sample Size | n=1,036 | n=1,700 | n=523 (Wave 3; all waves tracked) | n=600 | ||
| Population | Likely General Election Voters | Likely General Election Voters | General Election Survey | |||
| Mode | Mobile Text & Live Interviews | Live Telephone Interview | Not specified | |||
| MoE | ±3.23% | Not specified | ±4.37% | ±4.0% | ||
| Sponsor | One Nation | One Nation | Not specified | |||
| Difference | Detail |
|---|---|
| Ballot Test Structure | co/efficient included a "Someone else" option alongside named candidates and "Undecided." Axis used named candidates with lean follow-up probes (Definitely/Probably/Lean) and a "Hard Undecided" category. 1892 used named candidates and "Undecided." These structural differences affect the distribution of vote share. |
| Interview Mode | Axis conducted live telephone interviews. co/efficient used mixed-mode (mobile text responses and live interviews). Mode effects can influence responses, particularly on sensitive questions. |
| Favorability Wording | co/efficient asked "What is your opinion of [name]?" with Favorable/Unfavorable/Unsure/Never Heard. Axis and 1892 used standard favorable/unfavorable with Very/Somewhat intensity scales. |
| Dem Primary Universe | co/efficient tested among "Democrat Primary Voters Only." Axis filtered to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents planning to vote in the primary. 1892 tested among a subsample of n=351. |
| Trump Question | co/efficient and Axis both asked Trump job approval (approve/disapprove). 1892 asked Trump favorability (favorable/unfavorable). Related but distinct measures. |